Essay in Science on conflict prediction
Lars-Erik Cederman and Nils Weidmann discuss the promises and pitfalls of forecasting political violence
An essay in Science magazine reports on recent attempts to forecast political violence. The authors argue that conflict prediction is inherently difficult due to the fundamental complexity of world history, as well as limited data quality and data availability. Prediction is possible, but only within a very limited scope. The article is available at http://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6324/474.