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We build a data set on financial and human capital flight for 48 countries for the period 1970–98 and analyse capital flight as a portfolio choice. Financial capital flight is measured as the stock of capital flight relative to domestically held private net wealth and human capital flight as the proportion of a country's educated population that is living outside the country. Our results suggest that the same economic factors influence human and financial portfolio decisions, namely the relative returns and the relative risks in the competing locations. We focus on the estimated model's implications for Africa, finding that the severe financial capital flight that Africa experienced until the late 1980s has started to be reversed. The factors that have accounted for this repatriation are probably the reduction in the parallel market premium and African indebtedness, the reduction in the incidence of civil war (a phenomenon true only of our sample countries, rather than a general African phenomenon) and the decline in real US interest rates. In contrast, we find that human capital flight is rapidly increasing, as the emigration of the educated is subject to much more powerful momentum effects than financial capital flight. Finally, we find that for both types of capital flight policy changes only affect outcomes with long lags, suggesting that Africa's human capital exodus will be an increasingly important problem.

Countries emerging from civil war attract both aid and policy advice. This paper provides the first systematic empirical analysis of aid and policy reform in the post-conflict growth process. It is based on a comprehensive data set of large civil wars, and covers 17 societies that were in their first decade of post-conflict economic recovery. We first investigate whether the absorptive capacity for aid is systematically different in post-conflict countries. We find that during the 3 post-conflict years absorptive capacity is no greater than normal, but that in the rest of the first decade it is approximately double its normal level.Thus, ideally, aid should phase in during the decade. Historically, aid has not, on average, been higher in post-conflict societies, and indeed it has tended to taper out over the course of the decade. We then investigate whether the contribution of policy to growth is systematically diffrent in post-conflict countries, and in particular, whether particular components of policy are differentially important. For this we use the World Bank policy rating database. We find that growth is more sensitive to policy in post-conflict societies. Comparing the efficacy of different policies, we find that social policies are differentially important relative to macroeconomic policies. However, historically, this does not appear to have been how policy reform has been prioritized in post-conflict societies.

We investigate the causes of civil war, using a new data set of wars during 1960–99. Rebellion may be explained by atypically severe grievances, such as high inequality, a lack of political rights, or ethnic and religious divisions in society. Alternatively, it might be explained by atypical opportunities for building a rebel organization. While it is difficult to find proxies for grievances and opportunities, we find that political and social variables that are most obviously related to grievances have little explanatory power. By contrast, economic variables, which could proxy some grievances but are perhaps more obviously related to the viability of rebellion, provide considerably more explanatory power.

Am Beispiel der CDU-Spendenaffäre 1999/2000 und der Flutkatastrophe 2002 wird untersucht, wie sich politische Ereignisse, die ungeplant als externe Shocks auftreten, auf die Popularität von Parteien und Politikern in einer gegebenen ideologischen Grundstruktur des Parteiensystems auswirken. Hierfür wird eine Verbindung zwischen den räumliche Modellen des Wählerverhaltens, die diese Grundstruktur abbilden, und der Berücksichtigung von Popularitätsschwankungen in Folge von Valenzissues hergestellt. Anhand von Skalometerdaten wird ein Politikraum mit ideologischer und Popularitätsdimension durch eine Hauptkomponentenanalyse geschätzt, der sowohl die Positionen der Parteien und Politiker als auch die Idealpunkte der Befragten enthält. Es kann gezeigt werden, dass das Grundgefüge, also die ideologische Anordnung der Parteien, selbst bei so herausragenden Ereignissen wie der CDU-Spendenaffäre bestehen bleibt und die wesentlichen Veränderungen auf der Popularitätsdimension stattfinden. Des Weiteren ändert sich die Bewertung der Parteien und Politiker vor allem bei der Gruppe der Unabhängigen, während die verschiedenen Parteianhängergruppen in ihrem Urteil recht stabil bleiben.

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dc.contributor.author: Eisele, Kai; Hahr, Stephan

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The literature on neo-corporatist agreements in social and labor market policy in the 1990s points to a decline of concertation in European countries with a long-standing tradition of corporatist negotiation. This article identifies a similar trend in Switzerland and argues that three destabilizing factors account for it: 1) retrenchment pressure and ideological polarization prevent compromises; 2) the emergence of new social demands and interests challenges the homogeneity and legitimacy of peak organizations and thus their bargaining power; 3) increasing media coverage tends to open up the traditionally confidential and selective sphere of corporatist negotiation and weakens the social partners’ ability to reach agreements. The impact of these factors on neo-corporatist bargaining is tested in Switzerland, a case where corporatist negotiations used to be particularly decisive in social policy making. Empirical evidence comes from a cross-time comparison of two major social policies: Unemployment insurance and pension reforms in the 1970s and in the 1990s. In the last decade, the main locus of decision-making shifted from the sphere of interest groups to partisan politics. In parliament, the political parties were able to draft bills enjoying wide acceptance thanks to compensations offered to groups particularly vulnerable to new social risks.

The term governance has made an impressive career from the early 1990s onwards. It has developed into a catchword and focal point of an ever-growing number of studies in social and political sciences. Notwithstanding this development, we still lack a clear understanding of the concept. This paper seeks to address these deficits in two ways. On the one hand, a distinction is suggested between different ideal type patterns of governance that are characterized by a specific division of competencies between state and society. On the other hand, the appropriateness of different patterns is assessed by taking account of institutional and problem structures as well as normative criteria for the evaluation of governance success. As will become apparent from these considerations, any arguments and demands regarding a retreat or demise of the state, as they can often be found in the literature, are highly questionable. The state will continue to play a central role in governance, regardless of challenges to its internal and external autonomy.

The leadership of musicians by the conductor of an orchestra is a combination of authority and charisma. It is a special case of directive-charismatic leadership that needs to be explained because it involves substantive restriction of freedom for the led, whereas in other creative fields (e.g. research and development) a non-directive style of leadership is considered functional to success. Current theory on leadership (e.g. contingency theory) is not able to explain this phenomenon. We develop a model of leadership in the orchestra, from which a specific (directive-charismatic) leader behavior is to be derived from the singularities of this leadership goal and the behavior required of followers. On the basis of a sample of n = 334 musicians from thirty German orchestras, we show empirically that directive-charismatic leadership in the orchestra has a positive impact on the quality of ensemble playing, thus promoting artistic quality as leadership success. Conclusions are drawn both for leadership theory and for the selection and training of orchestral musicians and conductors.

One of the informal slanders leveled at the international relations literature is the reproach that the profession experiences many heroic take-offs but few safe landings. Because it exhibits a similar imbalance between theoretical ambition and empirical evidence, International Norms and Decision Making by Gary Goertz must be evaluated against this backdrop.

Die Erweiterung der Europäischen Union ist oft mit der Angst verknüpft, dass die Aufnahme von zehn relativ armen Mitgliedstaaten die legislativen Entscheidungsprozesse negativ beeinflusst. Wir untersuchen diese Befürchtung anhand von detaillierten Informationen zu den Präferenzen der gegenwärtigen und der künftigen Mitgliedstaaten. Analytische Grundlage dafür ist die rationalistische Entscheidungstheorie, mit der sich die vielerorts gehegten Erwartungen zur künftigen Qualität der EU- Gesetzgebung theoretisch deuten lassen. Die Analyse konzentriert sich auf den Ministerrat, der in allen Analysen als wichtigstes gesetzgeberisches Organ der Europäischen Union gilt. Wir zeigen, dass das Potential für Entscheidungszyklen und Blockaden nicht dramatisch zunimmt. Gleichzeitig ist aber eine Stärkung der protektionistisch orientierten, produzentenfreundlichen Fraktion zu erwarten, so dass die nordeuropäischen Staaten auf legislativer Ebene zu den Verlierern der Erweiterung gehören könnten.

Political interest is usually depicted as an individual attribute that can be explained by referring to the resources and skills of citizens. The analyses presented here are based on a critical assessment of the explanatory power of these approaches in cross-national and longitudinal comparisons. A contextual model is presented emphasising the relevance of distinct degrees of politicisation and economic development in different societies in addition to traditional sociodemographic factors (education, date of birth and gender) at the microlevel. The resulting multilevel model combines both individual and contextual factors to explain the cross-national differences and changes in political involvement and apathy in Europe in the last three decades. The politicisation thesis, which states that the level of political interest among citizens is an increasing function of the relevance of societal and political arrangements in a society, is not supported by the empirical findings presented here. The most noteworthy conclusion is the remarkable disappearance of the impact of societal politicisation when the level of economic development of each country is included in multilevel models. The level of political interest, then, clearly depends on the level of economic development.

Mathematical procedures that promise an envy-free, equitable, and efficient solution to distributional conflicts have received widespread attention. Two fair-division mechanisms, adjusted Knaster and proportional Knaster, which are similar to the well-known adjusted-winner procedure, are compared with the less fair divide-and-choose mechanism. Results show that participants largely prefer the adjusted-Knaster procedure to the two alternatives. Adjusted Knaster, closely followed by proportional Knaster, also promises the highest average payoff. Yet the sophisticated mechanisms cease to perform better than divide-and-choose once actors receive the possibility to deviate from the mandatory bargaining protocols of fair-division procedures. The preference for adjusted and proportional Knaster is found to be a partial function of the participants psychological profile. The more antisocial a participant, the more likely this respondent is to opt for a procedure with a compensatory mechanism.

The Maastricht process set up economic and fiscal criteria that member states of the European Union are expected to meet in the preparation for and when having joined the third stage of EMU. According to EMU rules, the Commission monitors the fiscal behavior of the participants but member states themselves--as members of the Council of Ministers--finally vote on the Commission recommendations. It is therefore questionable whether these criteria actually constrain member state governments from running excessive deficits. This paper adopts a constitutionalist perspective to address this question by asking how member states will interpret or even change the fiscal rules of the EMU in the future. Council decision-making in the area of EMU politics is analyzed using data on the economic and fiscal positions of current member states and acceding countries from Eastern and Southern Europe. The findings suggest that enlargement will shift policy outcomes, but, if compared to the situation at the time of the signing of the Maastricht treaty, the effect is rather marginal.

This study examines how the institutional provisions of the Nice Treaty and the constitutional reform of the European Union (EU) will affect agricultural decision-making in the enlarged EU. Although the agricultural sector is a core EU policy domain, we have little knowledge about the effects of institutional reform following the accession of 10 relatively small and poor countries, each having a large primary sector. Based on an input output taxation model, we identify the positions of old and new member states in the twodimensional space of EU agricultural politics. This allows us to investigate whether and how Council decision-making will change if the Nice Treaty s provisions for qualified majority voting are replaced by those of the draft constitution of 2004. Our analysis shows that the constitution is an advance providing for more policy change but it falls behind the Laeken proposal, which would have effectively reformed EU agricultural decision-making.