Aktuelle Publikationen
Auf dieser Seite finden Sie die chronologisch geordneten Veröffentlichungen unserer Wissenschaftler*innen aus den vergangenen Jahren.
Aktuelle Publikationen (Politik- und Verwaltungswissenschaft)
-
dc.title:
-
(2016): Perceptions of environmental change and migration decisions Climatic Change. Springer. 2016, 138, pp. 439-451. ISSN 0165-0009. eISSN 1573-1480. Available under: doi: 10.1007/s10584-016-1767-1
While climate change is projected to increase displacement of people, knowledge on this issue remains limited and fragmented. In his paper we focus on the micro-level and study the effects of individual perceptions of different types of environmental events (i.e., sudden/short-term vs. slow-onset/long-term) on migration decisions. Our results based on newly collected micro-level survey data from Vietnam shows that while slow-onset environmental events, such as droughs, significantly decrease the likelihood of migration, short-term events, such as floods, are positively related to migration, although not in a statistically significant way. When contrasting individual level perceptions with actual climatic events we observe that migrants and non-migrants perceive both long-term as well as sudden-onset environmental events in different ways. While non-migrants are slightly better in judging the actual extremeness of events such as floods and hurricanes, it is the migrants who are slightly better in judging the actual extremeness in the case of droughts.
-
(2016): How to Increase Turnout in Low-Salience Elections : Quasi-Experimental Evidence on the Effect of Concurrent Second-Order Elections on Political Participation Political Science Research and Methods. Cambridge University Press. 2016, 6(3), pp. 509-526. ISSN 2049-8470. eISSN 2049-8489. Available under: doi: 10.1017/psrm.2016.38
Voter turnout in second-order elections is on a dramatic decline in many modern democracies. This article investigates how electoral participation can be substantially increased by holding multiple of these less important elections simultaneously. Leading to a relative decrease in voting costs, concurrent elections theoretically have economies of scale to the individual voter and thus should see turnout levels larger than those obtained in any stand-alone election. Leveraging as-if-random variation of local election timing in Germany, we estimate the causal effect of concurrent mayoral elections on European election turnout at around 10 percentage points. Exploiting variation in treatment intensity, we show that the magnitude of the concurrency effect is contingent upon district size and the competitiveness of the local race.
-
(2016): Emotions, Demographics and Sociability in Twitter Interactions GUMMADI, Krishna P., ed., Markus STROHMAIER, ed.. Proceedings of the Tenth International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media (ICWSM 2016). Palo Alto, CA, USA: AAAI Press, 2016, pp. 201-210. ISBN 978-1-57735-758-2
The social connections people form online affect the quality of information they receive and their online experience. Although a host of socioeconomic and cognitive factors were implicated in the formation of offline social ties, few of them have been empirically validated, particularly in an online setting. In this study, we analyze a large corpus of geo-referenced messages, or tweets, posted by social media users from a major US metropolitan area. We linked these tweets to US Census data through their locations. This allowed us to measure emotions expressed in the tweets posted from an area, the structure of social connections, and also use that area's socioeconomic characteristics in analysis. %We extracted the structure of online social interactions from the people mentioned in tweets from that area.We find that at an aggregate level, places where social media users engage more deeply with less diverse social contacts are those where they express more negative emotions, like sadness and anger. Demographics also has an impact: these places have residents with lower household income and education levels. Conversely, places where people engage less frequently but with diverse contacts have happier, more positive messages posted from them and also have better educated, younger, more affluent residents. Results suggest that cognitive factors and offline characteristics affect the quality of online interactions. Our work highlights the value of linking social media data to traditional data sources, such as US Census, to drive novel analysis of online behavior.
-
(2016): When the filter bubble bursts : collective evaluation dynamics in online communities WebSci '16 : Proceedings of the 8th ACM Conference on Web Science. New York, NY, United States: Association for Computing Machinery, 2016, pp. 307-308. ISBN 978-1-4503-4208-7. Available under: doi: 10.1145/2908131.2908180
Through the analysis of collective upvotes and downvotes in multiple social media, we discover the bimodal regime of collective evaluations. When online content surpasses the local social context by reaching a threshold of collective attention, negativity grows faster with positivity, which serves as a trace of the burst of a filter bubble. To attain a global audience, we show that emotions expressed in online content has a significant effect and also play a key role in creating polarized opinions.
-
(2016): Civil war violence and political trust : Microlevel evidence from Nepal Conflict Management and Peace Science. 2016, 33(1), pp. 67-88. ISSN 0738-8942. eISSN 1549-9219. Available under: doi: 10.1177/0738894214544612
Exposure to violence can shape people’s political and social perceptions. War-time effects on trust in state institutions are particularly relevant for political stability in the aftermath of violent conflict. If people distrust the state, they are less likely to endorse reform plans, will be less inclined to comply with state rules and regulations, and may uphold support for challengers of state authority. Our paper contributes to the understanding of the role of violence for trust in the national government. We use high-quality, geo-referenced survey data, joined with village-level information on civil war casualties, to estimate the effects of exposure to violence on political trust in Nepal. We find that exposure to violence matters for reducing trust in the national government. This association seems to be mainly driven by effects of violence at the outbreak of the conflict as well as at the end of the civil war period under investigation. These findings shed new light on the complex associations between exposure to violence and political trust.
-
Heike Schütter untersucht im Rahmen einer qualitativen und einer quantitativen Studie, welche Faktoren Auswirkungen auf eine Auslandsentsendung besitzen, insbesondere wie die Arbeits-Familieninteraktion Einfluss auf den Entsendungserfolg nimmt. Die Autorin zeigt die Notwendigkeit für Unternehmen auf, die Familie stärker als bisher sowohl bei der Kandidatenauswahl als auch während der Zeit im Ausland zu berücksichtigen und die Einflussfaktoren der Interaktion zwischen Arbeit und Familie gezielt zu fördern, um die Wahrscheinlichkeit einer erfolgreichen Entsendung zu maximieren. Den Entsandten ermöglichen die Erkenntnisse dieser Arbeit einzuschätzen, ob sie und ihre Familien geeignete Kandidaten für eine Auslandsentsendung sind.
-
(2016): Strong governments, precarious workers : labour market policy-making in the era of liberalisation
Outsiders are perhaps the clearest losers of the neoliberal era. They are either unemployed or have atypical jobs, thereby often lacking adequate coverage in such fundamental areas as wage bargaining, job security, and welfare benefits. The growing number of outsiders in advanced capitalist political economies is associated with several trends that are adverse in their implications for democracy and society: declining voter turnout and political resignation, diverging life chances and growing poverty as well as poor health, and even an increased relative risk of suicide. The willingness of a state to protect workers from the risks of being unemployed or atypically employed is thus of great political and social significance. Why, then, did some European welfare states protect outsiders better than others, given the common constraints of the neoliberal era? My PhD thesis examines this question through a comparative investigation of labour market policy change in Austria, Denmark, and Sweden over the past three decades, complemented with shadow case studies of Italy and Spain. A historical reconstruction of reform trajectories in similar small states with different distributive outcomes allows us to test the explanatory power of different theoretical approaches. Building on primary and secondary sources as well as evidence from 46 interviews with policy-making elites, this thesis follows a qualitative methodological approach that combines co-variation analysis, causal process tracing and counterfactual arguments. Challenging conventional theories, the thesis finds that the enhanced protection of outsiders rests on the interaction between inclusive trade unions and politically weak governments. High levels of inclusiveness continue to provide trade unions with an acute interest in the protection of outsiders. But governments of all partisan colours prioritised fiscal consolidation over the social protection of outsiders in the neoliberal era. When they had a united majority of seats in parliament, they were therefore strong enough to pursue a unilateral reform strategy that excludes unions to the detriment of outsiders. When they were weakened by intra-coalitional divides or a hung parliament, on the other hand, they negotiated political deals with trade unions to mobilise an extra-parliamentary channel of consensus mobilisation. This kind of weakness was instrumental in forcing governments to compensate outsiders for economic uncertainty. The core argument of this thesis can therefore be summarised as follows: the weaker the government, the stronger the capacity of inclusive trade unions to enhance the protection of outsiders through an extension of job security regulations, unemployment benefit entitlements, and active labour market policy spending. This finding calls into question the electoral responsiveness of national governments – and thus political parties – to the social needs of an increasingly numerous group of precarious workers.
-
Traditional political systems, like chieftaincies and councils of elders, regained political importance in Africa in the 1990s. Coinciding with the Third Wave of Democratisation, this so-called 'resurgence' of traditional systems left scholars to wonder about their democratic compatibility with the state system and their impact on state-level democracy. Two main theoretical arguments persist in the academic literature: The neo-traditional argument contends that traditional leadership is compatible with modern democratic governance due to its inherent democratic elements such as consensual decision-making and public participation. The neo-liberal approach on the other hand argues that traditional authorities contradict the idea of liberal democracy by their very nature, as they disregard gender equality and do not elect their leaders. In this study, I seek to substantiate the theoretical discussion by first, providing original comparative data on the democraticness of contemporary traditional political systems and second, by empirically examining their consequence for democracy in Africa. The original data was gathered in an extensive expert web survey in the first part of this study. The survey data proves that traditional political systems still matter in Africa. The 308 participating experts stated that more than 90% of the politically relevant groups covered by the survey are still organised traditionally. More than half can be considered democratic. However, the diversity among the traditional systems is huge, and very democratic as well as very undemocratic groups are distributed throughout Africa. Consequently, neither the neo-traditionalist nor the neo-liberalist argumentations have a strong empirical reality. The variance in the democraticness of traditional systems can be explained by their structural political attributes. I find that the most democratic traditional systems are characterised by consensual decision-making. The centralisation of their political power, i.e. the difference between hereditary chieftaincies and nomadic tribes with age-set systems, however, is irrelevant for the democraticness of traditional political systems. Even though their democraticness varies hugely, I find in the subsequent empirical analyses that traditional political systems have an impact on state-level democracy in Africa. The analyses demonstrate that centralised traditional systems, like chieftaincies and kingdoms, are best suited to strengthen African democracy, while the democraticness of traditional systems per se is irrelevant. The 'resurgence' of traditional systems thus seems to have led to a hybridisation of the traditional and the state political systems. This hybridisation is empirically found to be conducive to democracy in Africa. The hybridity might consequently symbolise a unique form of democracy, which can evolve towards a 'new' traditional African democracy. Future research on democracy and politics in Africa should thus take traditional political systems seriously as they not only matter to the local population but also impact state-level democracy.
-
dc.title:
-
(2016): Stabilität und Wandel der nationalen Identität in der deutschen Bevölkerung Kölner Zeitschrift für Soziologie und Sozialpsychologie (KZfSS). Springer. 2016, 68(3), pp. 435-456. ISSN 0023-2653. eISSN 1861-891X. Available under: doi: 10.1007/s11577-016-0370-9
Dieser Beitrag untersucht die Bedeutungsdimension nationaler Identität in Deutschland zu drei Zeitpunkten. Unter Verwendung gruppenvergleichender konfirmatorischer Faktorenanalysen werden auf Grundlage der ISSP-Module zur nationalen Identität aus den Jahren 1995, 2004 und 2014, indivdueller patriotischer Nationalstolz, völkisch-kulturalistische Haltungen und Chauvinismus als distinkte Dimensionen der Identitäten der Deutschen identifiziert. 1995 korrelieren diese noch deutlich stärker als 2004 und 2014. Explorative latente Klassenanalysen zeigen sowohl Gemeinsamkeiten als auch Unterschiede in den Ausprägungskombinationen, die die Deutschen zu den drei Zeitpunkten auf den drei Dimensionen aufweisen. Wir diskutieren die Implikationen dieser Befunde sowohl für die Konzeptualisierung und Messung nationaler Identitäten als auch für den Wandel des Verhältnisses der Bevölkerung zu Deutschland im Untersuchungszeitraum.
-
(2016): Hybridity and Responsible Leadership in Public Administration ABELS, Gabriele, ed.. Vorsicht Sicherheit! Legitimationsprobleme der Ordnung von Freiheit : 26. wissenschaftlicher Kongress der Deutschen Vereinigung für Politische Wissenschaft. Baden-Baden: Nomos, 2016, pp. 309-332. ISBN 978-3-8487-2444-4. Available under: doi: 10.5771/9783845266039-309
dc.title:
-
dc.title:
-
(2016): Valenz im ideologischen Parteienwettbewerb während des Bundestagswahlkampfes 2013 SCHOEN, Harald, ed., Bernhard WESSELS, ed.. Wahlen und Wähler. Wiesbaden: Springer Fachmedien, 2016, pp. 245-270. ISBN 978-3-658-11205-9. Available under: doi: 10.1007/978-3-658-11206-6_12
Dieser Beitrag beschäftigt sich mit der Analyse von Valenz in räumlichen Modellen des Parteienwettbewerbs bei der Bundestagswahl 2013. Anhand eines auf Skalometerdaten basierenden Entfaltungsmodells können kurzfristige Dynamiken des Bundestagswahlkampfes kontextübergreifend verglichen werden. Auf Basis einer Querschnittserhebung wurden Parteipositionen sowie eine Valenzkomponente in Ost- und Westdeutschland vor und nach dem TV-Duell modelliert. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Wahrnehmung des ideologischen und politischen Raumes in Ost- und Westdeutschland weitestgehend homogen und zeitlich stabil ist. Valenzen hingegen unterliegen in beiden Landesteilen kurzfristigeren Dynamiken infolge von Wahlkampfereignissen. Daher kann Valenz als zentrales Element des Parteienwettbewerbs gelten.
-
(2016): Formation du capital humain, croissance et inégalités Revue Française des Affaires Sociales. 2016(5), pp. 189-212. ISSN 0035-2985
Les perspectives des économistes expliquent souvent la hausse des inégalités, observée dans de nombreux pays, par les contraintes sur l’offre de main-d’œuvre hautement qualifiée. Cet article remet en question cette perspective en mettant en lumière l’importance des différences de structures institutionnelles des systèmes d’éducation et de formation entre pays, qui sont liées aux disparités en termes de niveaux d’inégalités socio-économiques. Cet article évalue également dans quelle mesure les systèmes de formation professionnelle sont liés à la croissance économique et au chômage. Il y est argumenté (et démontré de façon empirique) que les systèmes de formation professionnelle en place au sein des économies de marché coordonnées telles que l’Allemagne, qui misent beaucoup sur la formation et l’enseignement professionnels, pourraient ne pas induire des taux de croissance élevés à court terme. Toutefois, ces systèmes encouragent les employeurs à adopter une perspective de long terme dans leurs stratégies en matière de gestions de personnel et de production, contribuant ainsi à la baisse des taux d’emploi et de chômage des jeunes, en particulier en temps de crise.
-
(2016): The More Fragmented the Better? : the Impact of Armed Forces Structure on Defection during Nonviolent Popular Uprisings International Interactions. 2016, 42(2), pp. 350-375. ISSN 0305-0629. eISSN 1547-7444. Available under: doi: 10.1080/03050629.2016.1093476
Authoritarian regimes frequently employ fragmentation to safeguard themselves against coups and reduce the power of the military apparatus. This article investigates the impact of structural coup-proofing in the setting of a nonviolent popular uprising that threatens the regime and its survival. It is argued that in such settings fragmentation can have unintentional consequences with respect to the question whether the army fulfills orders of repression or defects. If the security apparatus is highly divided, some armed organizations will seize the opportunity to defect and side with the protesters because the efficiency of counterbalancing decreases if more effective armed organizations are involved. This can be mainly explained through collective action problems that the security apparatus faces in such a setting. This article compiles data of nonviolent uprisings from 1975 to 2006 and data on armed forces structure for conducting a multivariate probit regression on the probability of defection. The findings indeed show a U-shaped relationship between armed forces fragmentation and the likelihood of defection during nonviolent mass uprisings. While security apparatuses with around two effective armed organizations display only a low probability of defection, minimally and highly fragmented forces indicate higher chances of defection from the ruling regime.
-
(2016): VisArgue : Analyse von politischen Verhandlungen Zeitschrift für Konfliktmanagement. 2016, 19(3), pp. 98-99. ISSN 1439-2127. eISSN 2194-4210. Available under: doi: 10.9785/zkm-2016-0308
Politikwissenschaftler, Linguisten und Informatiker der Universität Konstanz haben interdisziplinär drei Jahre lang im Rahmen eines Projekts ``VisArgue`` eine Software entwickelt, die politische Kommunikation analysiert, visualisiert und Rückschlüsse auf deren Effektivität zulässt. Erprobt wurden die Tools am Beispiel von Stuttgart 21.
-
(2016): Liberal Pluralism in a Secular Age ZEMMIN, Florian, ed., Colin JAGER, ed., Guido VANHEESWIJCK, ed.. Working with "A secular age" : interdisciplinary perspectives on Charles Taylor's master narrative. Berlin: De Gruyter, 2016, pp. 123-136. Religion and its others. 3. ISBN 978-3-11-037468-1. Available under: doi: 10.1515/9783110375510-007
dc.title:
-
(2016): Big Data in Public Affairs Education Journal of Public Affairs Education. 2016, 22(2), pp. 231-248. ISSN 1523-6803
Public affairs schools face the challenge of including emergent topics in their curricula to prepare students for the public sector job market. Some such topics reflect advances in the use of information technologies; others reflect updates to industry standards or changing needs of public sector information management professionals. This article focuses on big data that are created through citizens’ use of new technologies and the combination of administratively collected data with online data. Big data require changes in government information management skills, including collection, cleaning, and interpreting unstructured and unfiltered data; real-time decision making based on early signals and patterns that emerge; and new organizational roles and tasks, such as open innovation and change management. This article reviews the existing literature, compares big data requirements in neighboring disciplines, and suggests 13 modules for a big data syllabus that extend Mason’s PAPA model of ethical considerations for the information age.
-
(2016): Finanzaufsicht in den Ländern : Struktur, Recht und ihr (fraglicher) Effekt auf die kommunale Verschuldung Zeitschrift für Kommunalfinanzen. 2016, 66(1), pp. 6-12. ISSN 0174-1136
In der kommunalpolitischen Praxis hat die Finanzaufsicht viele - oft wenig schmeichelhafte - Gesichter. Im Hinblick auf die kommunale Haushaltssituation wird sie wahlweise als Investitionshindernis oder gar Bedrohung der kommunalen Selbstverwaltung, als zahnloser Tiger oder als Sündenbock für das Abrutschen von Kommunen in die, Vergeblichkeitsfalle' gesehen. Im Gegensatz zur öffentlichen Wahrnehmung spielt die Finanzaufsicht bei der wissenschaftlichen Analyse potentieller Bestimmungsfaktoren der unterschiedlichen Performanz kommunaler Haushalte bis dato eine untergeordnete Rolle. Obwohl einschlägige Studien eine Vielzahl unterschiedlicher Erklärungsfaktoren wie beispielsweise sozioökonomische Rahmenbedingungen, spezifische (partei-) politische Konstellationen auf lokaler Ebene, etc„ in Betracht ziehen, reichen die in der Literatur diskutierten Einflussfaktoren nicht aus, um die hohe Heterogenität der kommunalen Haushaltsergebnisse vollständig zu erklären. Damit rückt das System der kommunalen Finanzaufsicht als elementarer, aber wissenschaftlich bisher weitgehend vernachlässigter Bestandteil des kommunalen Finanzsystems in den Fokus des Erkenntnisinteresses.