Aktuelle Publikationen

Theories on conflict behaviour regard armed groups as unitary actors whose members faithfully execute the orders of their leaders. Nevertheless, in reality mutinies, insubordination and fractionalisation occur. We argue that the faithful execution of orders depends on the level of organisational commitment of combatants. This level can be increased with the help of four management strategies. Using a dataset based on fieldwork in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, we analyse the influence of each of these strategies. The Bayesian analyses show that recruitment, training and promotion has statistical reliable influence, but that providing rewards does not.

The availability of data on digital traces is growing to unprecedented sizes, but inferring actionable knowledge from large-scale data is far from being trivial. This is especially important for computational finance, where digital traces of human behavior offer a great potential to drive trading strategies. We contribute to this by providing a consistent approach that integrates various datasources in the design of algorithmic traders. This allows us to derive insights into the principles behind the profitability of our trading strategies. We illustrate our approach through the analysis of Bitcoin, a cryptocurrency known for its large price fluctuations. In our analysis, we include economic signals of volume and price of exchange for USD, adoption of the Bitcoin technology, and transaction volume of Bitcoin. We add social signals related to information search, word of mouth volume, emotional valence, and opinion polarization as expressed in tweets related to Bitcoin for more than 3 years. Our analysis reveals that increases in opinion polarization and exchange volume precede rising Bitcoin prices, and that emotional valence precedes opinion polarization and rising exchange volumes. We apply these insights to design algorithmic trading strategies for Bitcoin, reaching very high profits in less than a year. We verify this high profitability with robust statistical methods that take into account risk and trading costs, confirming the long-standing hypothesis that trading based social media sentiment has the potential to yield positive returns on investment.

This article refines Lipsky's assertion that lacking resources negatively affects output performance. It uses fuzzy‐set Qualitative Comparative Analysis to analyse the nuanced interplay of contextual and individual determinants of the output performance of veterinary inspectors as street‐level bureaucrats in Switzerland. Moving ‘beyond Lipsky’, the study builds on recent theoretical contributions and a systematic comparison across organizational contexts. Against a widespread assumption, output performance is not all about resources. The impact of perceived available resources hinges on caseloads, which prove to be more decisive. These contextual factors interact with individual attitudes emerging from diverse public accountabilities. The results contextualize the often‐emphasized importance of worker–client interaction. In a setting where clients cannot escape the interaction, street‐level bureaucrats are not primarily held accountable by them. Studies of output performance should thus consider gaps between what is being demanded of and offered to street‐level bureaucrats, and the latter's multiple embeddedness.

We discuss models and data of crowd disasters, crime, terrorism, war and disease spreading to show that conventional recipes, such as deterrence strategies, are often not effective and sufficient to contain them. Many common approaches do not provide a good picture of the actual system behavior, because they neglect feedback loops, instabilities and cascade effects. The complex and often counter-intuitive behavior of social systems and their macro-level collective dynamics can be better understood by means of complexity science. We highlight that a suitable system design and management can help to stop undesirable cascade effects and to enable favorable kinds of self-organization in the system. In such a way, complexity science can help to save human lives.

Many examinations of the dimensions of conflict in the European Union Council of Ministers focus on the ideological roots of contestation in the EU. This article examines the extent to which structural attributes of the Member States explain the conflict within the Council of Ministers in general as well as in selected policy domains (agriculture, fisheries, environment, economic affairs). Drawing on the political economy literature of legislative decision-making, a multilevel analysis shows that country-level redistributive interests shape the interactions considerably and in some of the policy domains that are examined in more detail. The impact of ideological variables like the left-right positioning of the Member State governments remains inconsistent and marginal in this analysis.